Friday 27 May 2011

Preview of the Champions League Final 2011


FC Barcelona vs Manchester United FC
Wembley Stadium
Saturday 28th May 2011
20h45

Background:
Irresistible force vs Immovable object. This is how the UEFA Champions League 2011 has been billed. Is this a correct assumption? One can doubt whether Manchester United is an immovable object in this current season as at home, during the English Premier League and in the Champions League, they have been impenetrable, while there away form has not been up to standard. When one considers Manchester United’s away form this season in the premier league, 5 wins, 10 draws in 19 matches, can this team rightly be considered an immovable object. Manchester United teams of the past have dominated home and away when triumphing in the league yet the current version has not had many successes on the road in the league. But when a team has a manager in Sir Alex Ferguson, the players in the team know what they should expect from a man who has practically won it all in domestic and European Football. Sir Alex Ferguson is no doubt one of the greatest British managers of all time, rivaling Bob Paisley, Brian Clough and Jock Stein. It is more difficult than in previous eras to win championships due to the introduction of improved organisation, advanced technology in determining strategies and improved physical conditions of squads and Sir Alex Ferguson has proven over the years that he is the manager to beat in Britain and again this season has proven that. Winning the Premier League and taking this team to the Champions league finals is a great achievement. Three Champions league finals in four years is testament to a great manager.

The irresistible force in this instant is applied to the FC Barcelona. The Catalan giants, who have just wrapped up their 3rd consecutive title in La Liga, and are currently the world’s best team. A team boasting 7 World Cup winners plus a certain Argentine Legend in the making has swatted aside all opposition before them this season. With a brand of attractive, flowing football, FC Barcelona have enchanted many and gained new fans in the process of delivering football purity to the masses. In the Champions League this term, Barcelona has had a much tougher time than Manchester United on the way to the final. Arsenal, Shahktar Donetsk and Real Madrid were eliminated and not just eliminated, but completely outplayed. Barcelona had the unenviable task of eliminated their perennial title rivals and arch-enemies Real Madrid in the semi-finals. These two matches have certainly polarize opinions about the Spanish league in terms of the unsavory scenes during the match but it does not change the fact that Barcelona beat Real Madrid and beat them convincingly. Pep Guardiola’s team is one of the greatest in the history of the game and winning the Champions league on Saturday will elevate this team even more. 

The Holy Trinity - Stop them and you stop Barcelona?

Statistics for the two teams over the past 3 years in Domestic Competition:
Manchester United: Domestic League
Year
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
PTS
GD
Position
2009
38
28
6
4
68
24
90
+44
1st
2010
38
27
4
7
86
23
85
+58
2nd
2011
38
23
11
4
78
37
80
+41
1st

FC Barcelona: Domestic League
Year
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
PTS
GD
Position
2009
38
27
6
5
105
35
87
+70
1st
2010
38
31
6
1
98
24
99
+74
1st
2011
38
30
6
2
95
21
96
+74
1st

This statistical diagram aims to show that whereas Manchester United have continued to win titles, their defense over the last 3 year period has gradually started to become porous, whether this is down to injuries this term during the season is debatable, because a team of Manchester United’s stature should be able to make up for the injuries and suspensions that occur. Chris Smalling, Jonny Evans, Wes Brown were all able deputies over the course of the season but more goals have been leaked which suggests that the defense has not been good this season. Wayne Rooney has not produced as many goals as seasons past and with the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez, Manchester United lost two proven goalscorers and this has definitely affected the amount of goals scored over the past two years. Therefore the achievements of Javier Hernandez have been phenomenal this season. It is debatable, but without his goals this term, especially in the final stages of the season and his ability to relieve the pressure off Wayne Rooney, Manchester United possibly would not have been Champions this term.

United's "go to" man in the final months of the season. His movement and pace can cause problems for any defense and more importantly he only needs one chance to score. 
 
Barcelona’s statistics are very interesting. This team has been accused in some circles of having defensive weaknesses yet the statistics prove otherwise. Over the three year period, where fewer goals have been scored, the amount of goals conceded has dropped considerably, indicating that manager Pep Guardiola has focused on a more controlled game. This can be attributed to the intense pressing game that Guardiola employs in which opposition teams have less time on the ball and defence starts at the front thereby offering less goalscoring chances to the opposition. With the addition of David Villa up front, Barcelona have not scored more goals this term compared to previous seasons, but they have consistently scored more than 90 goals plus over three seasons, a phenomenal achievement. 

Player to watch:
FC Barcelona: Sergio Busquets – The most important player in the team. It starts with Busquets and ends with Messi. All Barcelona’s attacks begins with Busquets and all opposition attacks ends with Busquets breaking it up. Displaced Yaya Toure in the Barcelona team and since dominating the final in 2009, has gone from strength to strength. At 22 years old, and with 10 honours already to his name, including the World Cup last year, more honours will certainly come his way. Brilliant at reading the game, along with supreme technical ability, his one vice may be to exaggerate his reactions to fouls, but this does not detract from his gifts as a footballer. One of the best defensive midfielders in the world.

Manchester United: Javier Hernandez – Player of the season for Manchester United. Speed, athleticism and ability to know when to attack the penalty area and score goals. That ability is priceless in big finals. In the Spanish Press, he is certainly regarded as Manchester United’s main threat, and the question is will he start the final? If Manchester United have any aspirations of winning the final, they certainly should start him. “Chicarito”, as he is known, has certainly endured himself to the Manchester United fans and he should be a mainstay in the frontline for years to come. 

Road to the Final:
Manchester United:
Match
Opposition
Venue
Result
Group Stage: 1st Matchday
Rangers
Old Trafford
0-0
Group Stage: 2nd Matchday
Valencia
Mestalla
0-1
Group Stage: 3rd Matchday
Bursapor
Old Trafford
1-0
Group Stage: 4th Matchday
Bursapor
Bursa Ataturk
0-3
Group Stage: 5th Matchday
Rangers
Ibrox
0-1
Group Stage: 6th Matchday
Valencia
Old Trafford
1-1
1st Knock-out Round: 1st Leg
Marseille
Stade Velodrome
0-0
1st Knock-out Round: 2nd Leg
Marseille
Old Trafford
2-1
Quarter-Finals: 1st Leg
Chelsea
Stamford Bridge
0-1
Quarter-Finals: 2nd Leg
Chelsea
Old Trafford
2-1
Semi-Finals: 1st Leg
Schalke
Veltins Arena
0-2
Semi-Finals: 2nd Leg
Schalke
Old Trafford
4-1



FC Barcelona:
Match
Opposition
Venue
Result
Group Stage: 1st Matchday
Panathinaikos
Nou Camp
5-1
Group Stage: 2nd Matchday
Rubin Kazan
Centralni
1-1
Group Stage: 3rd Matchday
Kobenhavn
Nou Camp
2-0
Group Stage: 4th Matchday
Kobenhavn
Parken Stadion
1-1
Group Stage: 5th Matchday
Panathinaikos
OACA Spiros Louis
0-3
Group Stage: 6th Matchday
Rubin Kazan
Nou Camp
2-0
1st Knock-out Round: 1st Leg
Arsenal
Emirates
2-1
1st Knock-out Round: 2nd Leg
Arsenal
Nou Camp
3-1
Quarter-Finals: 1st Leg
Shahktar Donetsk
Nou Camp
5-1
Quarter-Finals: 2nd Leg
Shahktar Donetsk
Donbass Arena
0-1
Semi-Finals: 1st Leg
Real Madrid
Santiago Bernabeu
0-2
Semi-Finals: 2nd Leg
Real Madrid
Nou Camp
1-1

Lionel Messi is the top goalscorer in the competition with 11 goals in 12 matches as well as suffering the most fouls, 30 in the competition.
Manchester United have conceded the least amount of goals in the Champions League this term, with 4 goals conceded.

Possible Team lineups:
FC Barcelona: Valdes-Alves, Puyol, Pique, Abidal-Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta-Messi, Villa, Pedro (4-3-3)
Manchester United FC: Van Der Sar-Rafael, Ferdinand, Vidic, Evra-Park, Giggs, Carrick, Valencia, Rooney -Hernandez (4-3-2-1)

Prediction:
FC Barcelona are certainly the favorites having had an extremely tough road to the final and playing football which has become nearly unstoppable. However, Sir Alex Ferguson is one coach who is certainly not one to shy away from the challenge. The Rome final in 2009 left many scars and it has culminated with the chance to exact revenge at Wembley. Manchester United certainly has on paper the better defense, but the other departments such as Midfield and Forwards, they do trail by a distance. Planning to stop Lionel Messi is one of the hardest tasks in football and this should not be the sole focus of Sir Alex as there are many more players that can hurt Manchester United and therein lays the problem. More match winners on the pitch allied with possibly 60% plus possession in the final will mean that Manchester United have to work so hard and be so organised that over 90 minutes it is certainly nearby impossible to stop the Catalans. Busquets, Xavi and Iniesta were the midfield triumvirate, which tormented United in Rome and they are back again. Stop them and you have a chance of winning. Rooney and certainly Hernandez are the biggest threats to Barcelona but the question is how much ball these two will be able to get in order to hurt Barcelona. Real Madrid paid Barcelona the biggest compliment by changing their style of play and still it did not pay off. Does Sir Alex have enough options in order to win?  In Rome, he altered his side to four different strategies and still could not halt Barcelona domination.  Let’s hope that Sir Alex has something in the bag, the best way to play Barcelona is 3-3-3-1, the tactic employed by Chile’s Marcelo Bielsa. This allows only one defender to mark Lionel Messi and this formation protects the flanks from any overlapping from the opposition, which is Barcelona’s critical weapon. But changing formations at this stage of the season is too risky and could possibly create instability.

Score prediction: 2-0 to Barcelona. It is nearly impossible to beat Barcelona these days and Manchester United are one of the few teams that can provide the energy to match Barcelona and defensive organisation for 90 minutes. But energy is not enough to win a football match and a repeat scoreline of the 2009 final is on the cards.

Feel free to share your thoughts and predictions on tomorrow's final.

10 comments:

Harry said...

Great post guys... I think it was fair, but to call it completely unbias is a little bit of a stretch. Would have been nice to focus on some weaknesses in Barcelona's armour.

Yes United have not had the best away form domestically, but when looking at the Champion's League they are the only unbeaten team in the competition this season. Barcelona cannot boast the same accomplishment after falling short to Arsenal. What do you think was to blame in that game? Could United capitalise on anything revealed in that game?

Also you speak of the holy trinity including Busquets. Do you not think the better selection for Barcelona could be Mascherano?

Paul said...

@Harry In terms of Barcelona's weaknesses they are definitely struggling from a bit of fatigue. They have a much smaller squad than United and their players are currently averaging 40 games a season, as opposed to United's players who are averaging 30 games. This could be a telling factor as the game progresses. Also Barcelona can sometimes be wasteful in front of goal, however, it does not happen often enough to be declared a weakness. Away to Arsenal was one of those days where Barcelona missed countless chances and really they could have been three or four to the good before Arsenal fought back.

In terms of Mascherano, he does not play as well with the other two as Busquets. Busquets’ understanding of the Barcelona philosophy is something that has been engrained into him from a young age. Mascherano’s tends to take a touch before passing and often looks to pass long. Whereas Busquests does quick, short, one-touch passing, usually to Iniesta or Xavi, who then do the creating.

Harry said...

Thanks... that makes sense.

And I agree, even as a United fan that if there kinks in Barca's armour, they are really hard to find.

However, I want to focus on the left side of Barca's defence. If Abidal does indeed play, do you not think it is definitely the place where United will exploit. Valencia has had a great season since returning from injury and could pose Abidal problems?

Additionally, do you think there is room for Nani in the first XI or is that just too risky for United?

Karl Buckton said...

@Harry. I dont think it is a case of losing one game or comparing unbeaten records, one has to question Utd's opposition in the Champs League this season. Valencia were probably their toughest opposition in the entire tournament. Chelsea were in disarray at the time, Schalke had overacheived and Marseille were just too negative. Barcelona on the other hand have faced seriously good opposition. Arsenal are no slouches, they are the best passing team in the Premiership, boast classy players and yet were convincingly beaten. Shakhtar, on the other hand, were a bit unlucky at the Nou Camp as Luis Adriano missed some sitters which could have been decisive for the 2nd leg. That's the problem with Barcelona. If you dont take your chances, you will pay a dear price. Real Madrid, with the best squad in world football, could not get the job done. Negative tactics, a manager who plays the "me against the world" card and it ultimately backfired. Had Real being more positive and aligned that to their improved defensive organisation, the question is who knows.

United can win the game but it would take enormous concentration and organisation to beat Barcelona and that is why this Barcelona team is so good. No matter how many strategies you can employ, they will find a way around. I think the key game was the semi-final against Inter last year and that game force them to go back and look at things to work on which they have done. So Manchester United would have to be very good defensively and the point of attack needs to be measured. Attack at the times that is necessary otherwise you run the risk of losing the ball and allowing Barcelona to start another attack.

On the issue of Mascherano, he has been dependible this season, but Busquets fits the philosophy, as Paul said, and this is one of the reasons why he makes Barcelona tick. Busquets is supremely gifted, and he does the dirty work which is ignored by the press and public alike. Mascherano is sometimes very risky and loses the ball on occasions as his first touch is not that good. Also, Barcelona only pass the ball as much as 10 metres because it allows them to attack and defend quickly. Busquets fits this role perfectly.

Paul said...

@Harry Valencia can cause Barcelona problems if United, specifically Giggs and Carrick can get quality possession to his feet in ample space or if they can play him in behind Abidal who likes to get forward. Remember United will have about 30% to 35% of the ball and they have to be very economical with it in order to hurt Barcelona. There could be a case for Pep to start Puyol on the left side, which will close the space in behind as he won't bomb forward as much as Abidal. Valencia certainly has the talent to cause numerous problems and has been in fine form. We will just have to wait and see.

Nani will not start this game. Park's energy is required to close down the Barcelona midfield and he will get the nod ahead of Nani.

Stokkie said...

United not conceded away in cl all season. When rio and vidic have been together they've been as good as any central defensive pairing you'll find. Let's not go on about barca's tough run...arsenal and shaktar were overrun and made to look as overrated as they are-it seems inconsistent to mention arsenal and not Chelsea or shaktar and not schalke for that matter. Rooney's movement will be key for united, if he's on top of it it'll keep not only the whinging biscuits but also xavi honest for 90 minutes! Let's see how it plays out! United to sneak it after 90.

Karl Buckton said...

@Stokkie. If you are saying that Busquets whinges' most of the time, then i am afraid you are seriously wrong and it is a dangerous thing to say. Wayne Rooney goes about and swears on live television into a camera, yet Busquets is the one who is constantly being accused of being morally corrupt. I think most of the time double standards are being attributed to Barcelona players. There are two to three players that exaggerated, does not mean they do all the time.

On the issue of Rio and Vidic, do they have pace at the back to chase after the likes of Pedro, Villa and Messi, the same could be said for Hernandez and Rooney against Puyol and Pique. How is Rooney able tactically Stokkie to keep Xavi honest when Rooney's role, if played in a 5 man midfield would be to track Busquets and not Xavi. Please answer the question Stokkie?

How is United away when they are playing in England, even though they are classed as the away team for the match. The only difference is the dressing rooms. So i dont think you can apply that logic of not conceding away from home in this regard.

On the Shakhtar comment, they are not overrated and clearly that is a comment who shows no respect whatsoever to their acheivements this season.

Stokkie said...

Shaktar's achievements??? Please inform? Whatever happens in Sputnik land is about as relevant as rainfall in the gobi!

The point on the united away form was a direct response to the preview which slated united's away form in the league.shut your face you ignorant punk.

Your knowledge of football is very limited if you believe Rooney's role is to track biscuits!

I've surprised myself that I've taken the time to respond to your ridiculous statements but I consider it part of my duty to educate the ignorant!

Tonight will be great. If barca win please let us not hail pep for all he is doing is giving jersey's to some of the most gifted footballers that have ever lived.
If united win we SHOULD attribute it to Sir Alex's brilliance. Either way I hope that we don't decide this from 12 yards! Enjoy the spectacle kids...I hope to be talking tomorrow about The White Pele!

Digz said...

White Pele... Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha... Tonight WAS great. Barcelona were even greater than the preview could ever predict. As gifted as Barca's footballers are, their style of play is thanks to Pep. Many teams have world class players in their ranks. What separates Barca from the rest is their style of play. Possession football, and a constantly pressing defensive tactic. That's what managers are paid for. All hail Barca, all hail Pep... And for goodness sake, all hail Messi!

Karl Buckton said...

@Stokkie. Again, the slating of Shakhtar's acheivements is symptomatic of the problems that are found in Cape Town concerning teams from leagues outside of the EPL.

Maybe the away form of Utd finally caught up with Manchester United.

@Digz. Perfectly said. This is nothing against Man Utd but Barcelona thoroughly outplayed them. Messi, Xavi and Iniesta were sublime and the midfield of Man Utd were completely overrun henceforth the game was over as a contest.